Iris Publishers - World Journal of Agriculture and Soil Science (WJASS)
Prediction of Aulacaspis Tubercularis Newstead (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) Populations Using RCP Scenarios in Luxor Governorate, Egypt
Authorized by Moustafa MS Bakry
The
present work was carried out to study the effect of some climatic factors on
the population density of the white mango scale insect, Aulacaspis Tubercularis
on mango trees during three time series (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100)
under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (2.6, 4.5, 6.0
and 8.5) as compared with the current population of the pest (average of
population density for two years of 2017 and 2018) at Esna district, Luxor
Governorate, Egypt. Monthly estimations of total A. tubercularis population
indicated the presence of four peaks of insect abundance per year. The means of
solar radiation were entirely above the optimum range for activities of nymphs,
adult females and total population of A. tubercularis and solar radiation was
the most effective variables in population changes by 39.31, 39.38 and 43.50%
for nymphs, adult females and total population of A. tubercularis during the
base year data, respectively. The percentages of explained variance (E.V.%)
indicated that the combined effect of these climatic factors viz., maximum
temperature, minimum temperature and solar radiation were responsible for
82.37, 77.14 and 85.59 % of the population changes of nymphs, adult females and
total population of this scale insect, respectively.
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